Storm Data and Insurance
FEMA's Risk Score for Your Texas County: Hail and Wind Ratings Explained
Dallas and Tarrant counties both carry FEMA's 'Very High' hail rating with the two highest modeled hail frequencies among UrgentHomePros's core service counties, according to the FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - but Harris County actually has the single highest overall composite risk score (99.9 out of 100), driven more by its 'Very High' wind rating than by hail. This is a different measure than a county's historical hail-report count: FEMA's index is a relative, modeled risk score compared against every other US county, not a raw event tally.
Direct Answer
Dallas and Tarrant counties both carry FEMA's 'Very High' hail rating with the two highest modeled hail frequencies among UrgentHomePros's core service counties, according to the FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - but Harris County actually has the single highest overall composite risk score (99.9 out of 100), driven more by its 'Very High' wind rating than by hail. This is a different measure than a county's historical hail-report count: FEMA's index is a relative, modeled risk score compared against every other US county, not a raw event tally.
FEMA's hail and wind ratings for the same seven counties, side by side
This is a different data set than our historical hail-report guide above - that guide counts actual documented hail events since 2004, while this one uses FEMA's National Risk Index, a modeled relative-risk score FEMA calculates for every US county across 18 hazard types. Figures below are for the December 2025 release, as compiled and reported by PlainHazard's county profile pages.
- Tarrant County: Hail rated 'Very High' (avg. 9.4 modeled events/year, based on 358 historical events); Strong Wind rated 'Relatively Moderate' (avg. 4.2/year). Composite NRI score: 99.1/100 ('Relatively High'), with an estimated $608.1M in expected annual loss across all hazards.
- Denton County: Hail rated 'Very High' (avg. 9.7 modeled events/year) - the highest modeled hail frequency of these seven counties. Strong Wind rated 'Relatively High' (avg. 4.4/year). Composite NRI score: 96.9/100.
- Collin County: Hail rated 'Very High' (avg. 8.8/year); Strong Wind rated 'Relatively High' (avg. 4.4/year). Composite NRI score: 98.9/100.
- Dallas County: Hail rated 'Very High' (avg. 8.9/year, based on 339 historical events). Strong Wind is also rated 'Very High' (avg. 4.4/year) - one of only two counties in this group where both hazards hit FEMA's top rating tier. Composite NRI score: 99.7/100 ('Very High'), with an estimated $973.2M in annualized expected loss.
- Bexar County: Hail rated 'Very High' (avg. 3/year, based on 112 historical events) despite a lower modeled frequency than the DFW counties - FEMA's rating reflects relative severity and loss potential, not raw event count alone. Strong Wind rated 'Relatively High' (roughly once per year). Composite NRI score: 99.4/100.
- Harris County: Hail rated 'Relatively Moderate' (avg. 2.4/year) - notably lower than the DFW-area counties. Strong Wind rated 'Very High' (avg. 1.5/year). Composite NRI score: 99.9/100, the highest of any county in this group, driven more by wind and hurricane exposure than by hail specifically.
- Fort Bend County: Hail rated 'Relatively Moderate' (avg. 2.1/year); Strong Wind rated 'Relatively High' (avg. 1.4/year). Composite NRI score: 97.5/100, the lowest in this group though still 'Relatively High' on a national scale.
What a FEMA risk rating does and doesn't tell you
- A 'Very High' FEMA hail rating is a relative national ranking based on modeled frequency and historical loss data - it is not a prediction that your specific home will be hit this year, and it does not replace an actual roof inspection.
- FEMA's hazard ratings are modeled separately from a county's actual federal disaster-declaration history, which is often led by hurricanes even in high-hail counties - both measures are real, they just answer different questions about risk.
- Some insurers reference regional risk data like this when setting premiums or underwriting guidelines - understanding your county's rating can help you ask more informed questions at renewal time.
- This data reflects FEMA's December 2025 National Risk Index release specifically - FEMA periodically updates the index, so a rating pulled from an older release should not be treated as current.
Sources
The data above is cited directly from these publishers - follow the links to read the original reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Texas county in the UrgentHomePros service area has the highest FEMA hail risk rating?
Denton County has the highest modeled hail frequency in this group at an average of 9.7 events per year, per FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025 release) - though Tarrant, Collin, Dallas, and Bexar counties are also all rated 'Very High' for hail.
Does a 'Very High' hail rating mean my house will definitely be damaged?
No. FEMA's rating reflects a county's relative risk compared to other US counties based on modeled frequency and historical loss data - it's a planning and awareness tool, not a prediction for any individual property. Only a physical inspection can confirm whether your roof has actual damage.
Why does Harris County have the highest overall composite score despite a lower hail rating?
FEMA's composite National Risk Index score combines 18 different hazards, not just hail - Harris County's 'Very High' strong wind rating and hurricane exposure contribute more to its 99.9/100 composite score than hail does specifically.